US EditionUS, Global Economic Outlook Worsens in the Face of Trump's Tariffs, IMF Says
- On April 4, 2025, the International Monetary Fund published its latest World Economic Outlook, revising its forecast to a 2.8% increase in global economic growth for this year.
- The outlook worsened largely due to steep tariffs imposed by the U.S. And China and the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's next trade moves.
- China's growth forecast fell to 4%, down about half a point, while U.S. And European economies are also expected to slow amid reduced demand and tariffs.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF chief economist, said, "We are entering a new era" as the global economic system of the last eighty years resets amid supply shocks.
- The IMF raised U.S. Recession odds from 25% to 37%, with U.S. Growth expected at 1.8% this year, signaling slower expansion and continuing economic uncertainty.
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The impact of tariff uncertainty on the global economic outlook
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Chief Economist and Director of the IMF’s Research Department, explains how U.S. tariff policies and response measures from other countries are impacting the global economy. The IMF has revised its global growth forecast for
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