Iran's divided opposition senses its moment but activists remain wary of protests
- Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in power since 1989, faces intensified Israeli strikes amid rising internal protests and opposition calls for regime change.
- This escalation follows years of protests triggered by disputed elections in 2009, falling living standards in 2017, and women's rights activism in 2022, while Iran's ethnic minorities increase instability risks.
- Opposition remains fragmented, with exiled figures like Reza Pahlavi and the People's Mujahideen Organisation offering competing visions, while inside activists hesitate to provoke mass unrest amid security crackdowns.
- Analysts warn that ousting Khamenei risks a power vacuum possibly filled by the IRGC or military, raising fears of civil war and regional destabilisation, described as an 'unpredictable scenario' akin to Iraq 2.0.
- Despite hopes for liberal democracy, uncertainty over leadership and domestic support for opposition figures suggests that Iran's future remains unclear amid ongoing conflict and factional divisions.
43 Articles
43 Articles
Iran's divided opposition senses its moment but activists remain wary of protests
Iran's fragmented opposition groups think their moment may be close at hand, but activists involved in previous bouts of protest say they are unwilling to unleash mass unrest, even against a system they hate, with their nation under attack.
Why Iranian Activists Are Unwilling To Protest Against Khamenei Regime
Iran's fragmented opposition groups think their moment may be close at hand, but activists involved in previous bouts of protest say they are unwilling to unleash mass unrest, even against a system they hate, with their nation under attack.

If Iran's Khamenei falls, what would replace him?
Israel increasingly appears eager to oust the clerical leadership that has ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution but is taking a gamble given the Iranian opposition is divided and there is no guarantee new rulers would be any less…
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