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Iran's divided opposition senses its moment but activists remain wary of protests

  • Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in power since 1989, faces intensified Israeli strikes amid rising internal protests and opposition calls for regime change.
  • This escalation follows years of protests triggered by disputed elections in 2009, falling living standards in 2017, and women's rights activism in 2022, while Iran's ethnic minorities increase instability risks.
  • Opposition remains fragmented, with exiled figures like Reza Pahlavi and the People's Mujahideen Organisation offering competing visions, while inside activists hesitate to provoke mass unrest amid security crackdowns.
  • Analysts warn that ousting Khamenei risks a power vacuum possibly filled by the IRGC or military, raising fears of civil war and regional destabilisation, described as an 'unpredictable scenario' akin to Iraq 2.0.
  • Despite hopes for liberal democracy, uncertainty over leadership and domestic support for opposition figures suggests that Iran's future remains unclear amid ongoing conflict and factional divisions.
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If Iran's Khamenei falls, what would replace him?

Israel increasingly appears eager to oust the clerical leadership that has ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution but is taking a gamble given the Iranian opposition is divided and there is no guarantee new rulers would be any less…

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Folha de S.Paulo broke the news in São Paulo, Brazil on Wednesday, June 18, 2025.
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