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How Does Space Weather Affect Satellite Lifetime Predictions?
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How Does Space Weather Affect Satellite Lifetime Predictions?
Scott Shambaugh’s revised study of satellite lifetime predictions identifies solar forecasting as the largest source of uncertainty in Leonid Space’s tested system. The October 14 arXiv revision reports a median probabilistic forecast score of 44.9 days for a one-year prediction horizon under fully predictive conditions, compared with 3.9 days when future conditions are supplied retrospectively.
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