The Midterms Are Coming. Here's What the Stock Market Has Actually Done Before and After Since 1874
The historical pattern holds across 500 market periods, with stocks averaging a 12% return in the 12 months after midterms, The Motley Fool said.
- The Motley Fool analysis finds the market has historically risen in the 12 months following midterm elections, with positive returns occurring in the vast majority of cases since 1874.
- Investors often worry about election-year volatility, but historical data suggests the market generally ignores political noise and consistently trends upward over the long run regardless of election outcomes.
- Market performance varies based on government control, with data showing unified leadership influences returns differently, though positive performance remains the historical norm across most configurations.
- Attempting to time market swings based on election results is not a sound strategy, as data shows the market often cools temporarily before resuming its long-term upward trajectory.
- Staying invested remains the most reliable approach for retirement funds, as the market has averaged strong returns across various political cycles, effectively rewarding disciplined long-term investors.
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Mason City Globe Gazette
The midterms are coming. Here's what the stock market has actually done before and after since 1874
The Motley Fool reports that historically, the S&P 500 rises 14% on average in the year following midterm elections, regardless of political changes.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has always risen in the 12 months following the U.S. mid-term elections, with an average gain of 15%. The way to the polls is usually more accidental, but this year the stock market has challenged history.
The midterms are coming. Here's what the stock market has actually done before and after since 1874 - Hillsboro Sentry Enterprise
Since 1874, the S&P 500 has climbed in the year following 32 of the last 38 midterm elections, gaining an average of 14%, according to a Motley Fool analysis of election-year stock market history.Neither how many seats the president's party loses in Congress nor which party ends up running Washington afterward has been closely tied to the S&P 500's return in the following year, according to a Motley Fool analysis of Robert Shiller's stock market…
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Bias Distribution
- 85% of the sources are Center
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