Goldman Sachs Lifts Oil Price Forecasts on Weaker Middle East Output
The bank now sees Brent at $90 and WTI at $83 in the fourth quarter, citing a 14.5 million-barrel-a-day Middle East supply loss.
- Goldman Sachs upgraded its 2026 fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $90 and West Texas Intermediate to $83 on Sunday, citing persistent supply tightness tied to longer assumed Hormuz disruption.
- Persian Gulf crude production collapsed to 11.9 million barrels daily from a pre-war run rate of 26.4 million since the war began on Feb. 27, 2026, representing a 14.5 million barrel hit.
- Global oil inventories are drawing at 11-12 million barrels per day, the fastest pace on record, while the United States Oil Fund is up roughly 94% year-to-date.
- President Donald Trump dismissed the shock as a "little excursion," yet analysts warned that higher prices could pressure fuel-intensive industries and potentially trigger United States oil export restrictions.
- Analysts raised 2027 estimates to $85 for Brent and $80 for WTI, though adverse scenarios could trigger "non-linear price increases" reaching nearly $120 if inventory drawdowns persist.
14 Articles
14 Articles
Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecast as war disruption rages on
Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecast as disruption to energy production in the Gulf rages on amid the Middle Eastern conflict. The investment bank’s commodity analysts now project that Brent crude will trade at roughly $90 per barrel in the final three months of the year, up from a prior projection of $80. In a note published on Sunday, the analysts forecasted that oil exports from the Middle East will only normalise by the end of Jun…
Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecast Yet Again
Goldman Sachs once again raised its outlook for oil prices, now seeing Brent crude at an average of $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter of the year, and West Texas Intermediate at $83 per barrel. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $106.68 per barrel, and WTI was changing hands at $95.35 per barrel as negotiations between Iran and the United States remain on hold, with the restart uncertain. “The economic risks are larger than ou…
Analysts estimate that oil exports from the Middle East will normalize only by the end of June, and not by mid-May
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