US EditionGoldman Sachs Sees Rapid Oil Output Recovery if Iran War Ends
Goldman Sachs said 70% of lost output could return within three months after hostilities end, citing spare capacity and limited storage.
- Goldman Sachs analysts estimate Middle East oil production is down about 14.5 million barrels daily this month, with recovery to pre-war levels potentially taking just a few months, though analysts caution it could extend longer.
- Most lost production stems from precautionary well shut-in and "stock management" rather than physical damage, representing 57% of the Persian Gulf region's total pre-war production rate.
- Forecasters predict 70% of lost production could resume within three months, though another 88% of analysts see a six-month period for the return of the bulk of pre-war barrels.
- Global markets currently cover the shortfall by drawing from storage, including a record 400 million barrel release by the International Energy Agency and 172 million from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve .
- Infrastructure companies Enbridge and Enterprise Products Partners are crucial to this effort, transporting crude oil from the SPR to U.S. refineries and global markets to offset Persian Gulf supply disruptions.
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Persian Gulf Oil Output Is Down 57%. These Are the Energy Stocks Built for This Moment.
Key PointsOil output from the Persian Gulf has declined 57% due to the war. The IEA has released a record 400 million barrels from its emergency stockpile, including 172 million barrels from the U.S. SPR. Several oil pipeline companies are helping transport crude oil from storage to global markets. 10 stocks we like better than Enbridge › The war with Iran is having an enormous impact on the global oil market. According to an estimate by Goldman…
It should only be a question of months until oil production in the Gulf relaxes again. This is the assumption of the Großbank Goldman Sachs. Logistic bottlenecks are however quite possible.
Goldman Sachs Sees Rapid Oil Output Recovery if Iran War Ends
Crude oil production recovery to pre-war levels could take just a few months, Goldman Sachs analysts said, adding a note of caution that recovery could also take longer than that. The bank estimates lost production in the Middle East at 14.5 million barrels daily as of this month. However, most of that is the result not of physical damage to fields but of precautionary well shut-in and “stock management”, the analysts noted, as quoted by Reuters…
Goldman Sachs Sees Fast Gulf Oil Recovery After Hormuz Reopens, But Supply Risks Still Remain
The global energy market is currently holding its breath, staring down the barrel of a supply shock that has taken Gulf crude production offline by 14.5 million barrels per day (mbd), a staggering 57% drop from pre-war levels. While a recent report from Goldman Sachs suggests a “swift recovery” is possible once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, a closer look at the logistical and geological challenges suggests that the road back to normalcy will be …
Oil output to recover in months, full rebound uncertain: Goldman Sachs
Gulf crude oil production could largely recover within a few months of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, Goldman Sachs research said in a report. However, it added that a complete return to pre-war levels may take longer and the crude oil production is likely to face heightened risks if the closure of the crucial waterway and tensions in West Asia continue for a longer period.
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