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Goldman: Diesel prices set to stay high through 2027 as refineries struggle to meet demand

Summary by CNBC
Goldman Sachs says tight refinery capacity could keep diesel prices elevated through 2027, with high margins needed to curb demand and rebuild inventories.

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The bank projects that the margins of diesel and aviation fuel will average more than US$ 40 per barrel next year, more than double its usual level, even with a Brent stabilized around US$ 80.

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According to Goldman Sachs analysis, the price of diesel could remain high in 2027, as shortages of global refining capacity and the compulsion to replenish stocks keep the market under sustained pressure. The banking house expects a recovery in demand could face limited supply, CNBC wrote.

The Bank of Goldman Sachs expects diesel prices to remain at high levels during 2027 with a view to curbing global demand, given the operational challenges facing global refineries to meet consumption and replenish strategic stocks. The Bank believes that global average diesel refining margins and aviation fuel (the difference between the price of a refined product and the crude price) are going to exceed $40 per barrel by [...] article Goldman …

Goldman Sachs anticipates that diesel and aircraft fuel differentials could exceed $40 per barrel by 2027. The limited capacity of refineries, replenishment of inventories and supply restrictions complicate lasting relief, even after the announcement of new G7 reserve releases.

"Energy product prices must be maintained at sufficiently high levels to continue a certain degree of demand restraint into next year."

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CNBC broke the news in Englewood Cliffs, United States on Tuesday, October 6, 2026.
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