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IMF: Oil Price Shock Tests Global Economic Resilience

IMF warns a 10% sustained rise in energy prices could add 0.4 percentage points to inflation and slow growth by up to 0.2%, with Asia facing significant energy security risks.

  • On Friday, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the surge in oil and LNG prices from the Middle East war is testing the global economy's resilience.
  • Strikes and retaliatory Gulf attacks disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving Asia — China, Japan, South Korea and India — particularly vulnerable to supply risks.
  • IMF estimates show a 10% sustained energy-price rise would add 0.4 percentage point to inflation and slow growth by 0.1%-0.2%, despite growth at 3.3%, Georgieva noted.
  • Investors in Asia are already dumping technology stocks, and the Seoul market suffered its biggest-ever crash on Wednesday while the IMF discusses financial aid for vulnerable energy importers.
  • Georgieva warned that `We are in a world of more frequent, more unexpected shocks and we have been warning our membership for quite some time that uncertainty is now the new normal` and noted prolonged conflicts could impact global energy prices and policymakers' demands.
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Governments, central banks and international organizations are looking with concern at the Middle East. The war in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Ormuz have a direct impact on the price of oil - the Brent crude barrel, of reference in Europe, is now around $87 - and on the functioning of logistics chains at a global level, and there are fears that this will have an effect on the prices of the energy bill for households and companies and …

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A 10% increase in energy prices sustained for a year would translate into a four-tenths increase in inflation, while subtracting between one and two tenths from growth, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, warned on Friday, taking into account what has happened in previous experiences.

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Hello, although the US government claims that the war in Iran will last only a few weeks and that export routes for oil and gas will be freed up, we must also expect worse scenarios. Even more countries may be involved in the conflict and the development in the region is unpredictable. Bloomberg has outlined a scenario in which the decline in oil production and exports will be sharp and long-lasting, with prices remaining […]

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The global economic resilience has been tested one more time since the most recent war in the Middle East, warned the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, according to Euroactive. "This conflict, if it proves to be...

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Geo News broke the news in on Thursday, March 5, 2026.
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