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Fed to hit pause on rate hikes, but maybe not for long
Rate futures show a 90% probability of a policy hold, reflecting official concerns regarding Treasury yields despite ongoing inflation and accelerated economic growth.
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold short-term borrowing costs steady in the 3.75%-4.00% range at its October 27-28 meeting, pausing rate hikes despite persistent inflation concerns.
Influential policymakers were "spooked" by a recent surge in 10-year Treasury yields to near-quarter-century highs, prompting officials to signal the Fed is content to wait for more data before further tightening policy.
Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic argued "the data, in my opinion, do support a rate hike," while economists project September inflation accelerated to 3.6% from 3.4% amid higher gas prices and broader pressures.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh faces a delicate challenge explaining the hold without damaging the central bank's credibility, especially as the looming November 3 election complicates the political landscape surrounding the decision.
BMO Chief Economist Scott Anderson expects "at least one dissent" from hawkish officials at the meeting and predicts two further rate hikes are necessary to bring inflation down to the 2% target.