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Fed to hit pause on rate hikes, but maybe not for long

Rate futures show a 90% probability of a policy hold, reflecting official concerns regarding Treasury yields despite ongoing inflation and accelerated economic growth.

  • The Federal Reserve is expected to hold short-term borrowing costs steady in the 3.75%-4.00% range at its October 27-28 meeting, pausing rate hikes despite persistent inflation concerns.
  • Influential policymakers were "spooked" by a recent surge in 10-year Treasury yields to near-quarter-century highs, prompting officials to signal the Fed is content to wait for more data before further tightening policy.
  • Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic argued "the data, in my opinion, do support a rate hike," while economists project September inflation accelerated to 3.6% from 3.4% amid higher gas prices and broader pressures.
  • Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh faces a delicate challenge explaining the hold without damaging the central bank's credibility, especially as the looming November 3 election complicates the political landscape surrounding the decision.
  • BMO Chief Economist Scott Anderson expects "at least one dissent" from hawkish officials at the meeting and predicts two further rate hikes are necessary to bring inflation down to the 2% target.
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Bias Distribution

  • 83% of the sources are Center
83% Center

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Market Screener broke the news in Annecy, France on Monday, October 26, 2026.
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