El Niño Continues to Strengthen. What Does that Mean for Flood Risk This Winter?
Scientists say storm timing and clustering will determine how much flooding California sees as coastal sea levels rise and atmospheric rivers arrive.
- Federal scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño through winter, with a 69% probability it will be the strongest since 1950.
- Although El Niño increases the odds of wet winters in California, it does not guarantee imminent flooding; of the state's 10 worst flooding years since 1950, only three occurred during El Niño winters.
- Meteorologist Jan Null, who compiled 76 years of data, emphasizes storm timing is critical; consecutive big storms cause flooding, while the 1997-98 winter saw modest damage despite record rainfall because storms were spread out.
- Rising sea levels along the California coast make significant coastal flooding nearly guaranteed this winter. Inland flooding remains a "wild card" depending on atmospheric river patterns, climate scientist Daniel Swain said.
- Climate scientist Daniel Swain suggests residents in flood-prone areas obtain insurance, noting that while models predict high likelihood of wet conditions, the specific inland impact remains uncertain.
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The National Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States updated the climate predictions about the El Niño phenomenon, which has been estimated to be the most intense since there are records. Now, the new data published on Thursday indicate that “it would exceed the intensity of ... Continue reading “New NOAA warning by El Niño: “There is a 69% probability of a historical event” The post New NOAA warning by El Ni…
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Correio da ManhãEl Niño is gaining strength and approaching the possibility of becoming the most intense since the beginning of the records in 1950. This phenomenon involves warmer waters than normal and western winds.
Lancaster Farming
El Niño continues to strengthen. What does that mean for flood risk this winter?
The already strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean continue to grow stronger, federal scientists announced Thursday, with a 69% chance that this year’s event will be the strongest since modern records began in 1950.
With a 69% chance of setting a record, the El Niño phenomenon threatens to generate exceptional thermal anomalies and affect the global climate during the fall and winter of 2026-27.
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