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EBRD Cuts Growth Forecast to 2.5% as Iraq Oil Exports Slump
The bank said Iraq’s oil export collapse drove most of the downgrade, while Black Sea disruptions and European drought also weakened output and trade.
- On September 24, 2026, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development cut its 2026 regional growth forecast to 2.5% from 3.1%, citing Iraq's oil export collapse, European drought, and a renewed Black Sea blockade.
- Iraq's GDP is expected to shrink by 12% in 2026, while record-low water levels on the Danube and Rhine have limited industrial output and hydropower generation across the region.
- Ukraine's 2026 growth forecast was lowered to 1.5% as Russian attacks hit infrastructure, while inflation has stabilized at about 6% after peaking in April across the EBRD regions.
- The EBRD expects regional growth to rebound to 4.0% in 2027, assuming oil shipments normalize and supply chain constraints ease across its operational regions.
- In its "Running dry" report, the bank warns that water scarcity and high financing costs are compounding energy price pressures, requiring urgent investment in economic resilience.
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Economic growth across EBRD regions expected at 2.5% in 2026, 4% in 2027
·Ankara, Türkiye
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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reduced its growth prospects for emerging economies
·Syrian Arab Republic (the)
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The attacks on vessels in the Black Sea and the lack of water in the Danube make wheat exports very difficult, the price of which has increased by a third since February, is worrying the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in its quarterly forecasts.
·Paris, France
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EBRD cuts growth outlook again as Iraq and Ukraine hit by war pressures
Growth is slowing across a range of emerging market nations, with economies in Iraq, Lebanon and Ukraine hamstrung by the effects of war, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said on Thursday.
·London, United Kingdom
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Coverage Details
Total News Sources12
Leaning Left2Leaning Right2Center2Last UpdatedBias Distribution34% Left, 33% Center, 33% Right
Bias Distribution
- 34% of the sources lean Left, 33% of the sources are Center, 33% of the sources lean Right
34% Left
L 34%
C 33%
R 33%
Factuality
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