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Could more cattle cause record beef prices to drop? Ranchers say it's not that simple

The U.S. cattle herd has fallen to 86 million head, its smallest size in more than 75 years, driving record beef prices with uncooked ground beef reaching $6.86 per pound in March.
Persistent drought conditions affect about 63% of the U.S. cattle herd, while border closures since late 2024 have blocked about 1 million cattle from entering the U.S. from Mexico, said Warren Rusche, an extension feedlot specialist at South Dakota State University.
It takes 15 to 24 months for a calf to mature before slaughter, and ranchers face significant operational costs like feed and water, according to Bernt Nelson, an American Farm Bureau Federation economist.
Ranchers blame concentrated meat processing systems driven by four companies for high prices, though The Meat Institute argued the concentration ratio has not "changed appreciably" and retailers, not packers, set consumer prices.
About 26 billion pounds of beef are expected in 2026, yet North Dakota rancher Stephanie Hatzenbuhler cautioned that high equipment and fertilizer costs make it difficult for new producers to enter the business.

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