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El Niño Could Return This Year and Make Earth Even Hotter. Here's What to Know About the Weather Phenomenon.
NOAA adopted the Relative Oceanic Nino Index for real-time monitoring and forecasts a 50-60% chance of El Nino in mid-to-late 2026, possibly pushing global temperatures higher.
- On Tuesday, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasted a 50- to 60-percent chance of El Nino during July-September and adopted RONI as a new real-time tracker.
- Weakened trade winds warm the east-central Pacific, and the old Oceanic Nino Index compared to a 30-year baseline can be outdated as oceans warm rapidly.
- Recent ENSO history shows a typical El Nino tends to cause a global mean temperature change of 0.1C-0.2C, and the last El Nino in 2023–2024 contributed to record-high global temperatures, NOAA said.
- A developing El Nino could lead to wetter conditions in parts of Australia, southeast Asia, and northern Brazil, while causing drier weather in South America, NOAA said.
- Experts warn that timing could raise risks in 2027, with Semmler saying '2027 would face an increased risk of getting a record warm year if El Nino developed in the second half of 2026'.
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The World Meteorology Organization (WMO) published an updated forecast on Tuesday in Geneva on the possible reappearance of the El Niño climate phenomenon, which could contribute to new global temperature records. According to the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Authority (NOAA), there is a 50 to 60 percent probability that an El Niño will develop between July and September 2026. It is a recurring natural climate phenomenon in the Pacific that…
·Germany
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The World Weather Organization will deliver its updated forecast on Tuesday in Geneva.
·Montreal, Canada
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Total News Sources67
Leaning Left6Leaning Right11Center21Last UpdatedBias Distribution55% Center
Bias Distribution
- 55% of the sources are Center
55% Center
L 16%
C 55%
R 29%
Factuality
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