Citi: Oil Prices Remain Unstable Despite Recovering Gulf Exports
Citi said shipping bottlenecks and higher freight costs keep delivered crude tight, even as Gulf exports top prewar levels by more than 24 million barrels a day.
- Oil exports from the Gulf exceeded prewar averages, reaching more than 24 million barrels per day in the week ending October 18, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler, surpassing the prewar level of 23.3 million.
- Alternative routes accounted for around 40% of non-Iranian crude shipments in September, compared with 17% before the war, as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates increased pipeline usage to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
- Traders can earn around $20 more per barrel reselling Iraqi crude, while crew members receive large bonuses up to $25,000 for dangerous voyages. The Tanzania-flagged supertanker Loyalty was struck by a rocket-propelled grenade on October 16 while carrying two million barrels.
- Around 30 vessel attacks in October account for about 20% of all wartime attacks, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward. War-risk insurance premiums have surged to as much as 10% of a vessel's value, up from less than 3% prewar.
- JPMorgan commodities strategist Natasha Kaneva stated that Brent crude remained around $108 per barrel as traders question whether the recovery can be sustained if fighting intensifies. The Trump administration earlier explored allowing sanctioned shadow-fleet tankers to return to legitimate trade.
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maritimeprofessional.comCiti: Oil Prices Remain Unstable Despite Recovering Gulf Exports
Citi said on Thursday that near-term risks to oil prices remain skewed to the upside despite a recovery in Gulf crude exports, as shipping bottlenecks continue to keep delivered supplies tight."The normalization of Arab Gulf oil exports has been volumetric rather than logistical…
Stable oil exports and other factors would have to lower the oil price, but it climbs to a five-month high. What keeps the price up?
Oil Supply Improves as Middle East Crude Exports Recover, but High Fuel Costs May Persist: Jefferies
Get latest articles and stories on Business at LatestLY. Crude oil supplies from the Middle East have recovered to more than 90 per cent of pre-conflict levels, but high freight rates, elevated diesel margins and rising gas prices are likely to keep energy costs under pressure, according to a report by Jefferies. Business News | Oil Supply Improves as Middle East Crude Exports Recover, but High Fuel Costs May Persist: Jefferies.
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