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Trump tax law could trigger about $500B in Medicare cuts over decade without fix: CBO

The Congressional Budget Office projects $536 billion in Medicare cuts by 2034 due to deficit-driven sequestration unless Congress enacts offsetting legislation.

  • In its report on Friday, CBO warned that deficits from President Donald Trump's tax and spending law could trigger automatic Medicare cuts if Congress does not act.
  • The Congressional Budget Office acknowledged the law would require sequestration under the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010, enforcing spending cuts if Congress does not act.
  • Projections show growing cuts, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating Medicare could lose up to $45 billion in fiscal year 2026 and total cuts reaching $536 billion between 2026 and 2034.
  • CBO forecasts 100,000 people will be newly ineligible for Medicare and 400,000 could become uninsured due to halted enrollment rules.
  • Further, at least 10 million more will be uninsured by 2034, including 7.5 million from Medicaid policies and around 2.1 million from ACA marketplaces, with 5 million more losing coverage later this year.
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Trump tax law could cause Medicare cuts if Congress doesn't act, CBO says

The federal budget deficits caused by President Donald Trump’s tax and spending law could trigger automatic cuts to Medicare if Congress does not act, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

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U.S. News broke the news in New York, United States on Friday, August 15, 2025.
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