Iran War, Hormuz Disruptions Drive First Drop in Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Since 2020
- Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026 to about 38.2 billion metric tons, researchers reported on Monday according to the New York Times.
- War between the USA and Iran has disrupted supplies in The Strait, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas, forcing nations to cut consumption and pivot to alternatives.
- Oil emissions are projected to fall 1.9% and natural gas 0.3%, while coal emissions rise 0.6%. India's emissions are expected to increase 4.4%, above their average growth rate.
- Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, warned that "a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution."
- Atmospheric CO2 is set to reach 427.7 parts per million this year, 54% above preindustrial levels. The remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is now 150 billion metric tons, less than four years of emissions at current rates.
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11 Articles
In his column "Science", Jean-Christophe Batteria, journalist France Télévisions, looks back on the announced decline in global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 and the efforts of the major powers to limit global warming. A sequence to be found in the show "To follow Loïc de la Mornais", broadcast between 8:30 and 11pm on the news channel, channel 16.
Iran war, Hormuz disruptions drive first drop in global fossil fuel emissions since 2020
Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026, the first drop since 2020, partly as the Iran war cut oil and gas use. Researchers warn the decline is unlikely to last.
COP31: Global CO2 from fossil fuels to decrease - but it's largely due to wars
In a positive outlook from the 2026 Global carbon Budget, global emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026 – yet they warn it is not fast enough for a durable decline. Total CO2 emissions are projected to be 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026 – up from 42.8 billion tonnes last year – due to land-use changes, such as deforestation, peat fires and agriculture. The remaining amount of carbon that can be emitted before warming r…
fastcompany.com
As the war in Iran raised global oil prices, oil emissions dropped and solar and wind power expanded. That led to a slight decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026. But it’s not a sign that we’ve turned the tide on fossil fuel use, experts warn. Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026, according to research presented at the United Nations’ 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) climate talk…
For the first time since the pandemic, global fossil CO2 emissions could fall back, but is this the beginning of a real release of fossil fuels or a simple respite before recovery?
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