US EditionCrypto Asset Manager Bitwise Says Bitcoin Will Break Its Four-Year Cycle in 2026
Matt Hougan of Bitwise expects bitcoin to reach new highs in 2026 with lower volatility and increased institutional investment driven by regulatory progress and market structure changes.
- In a client note late Monday, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said Bitcoin is likely to defy its four-year cycle and reach new all-time highs next year.
- Structural shifts such as reduced leverage and regulatory clarity weaken the quadrennial bitcoin halving’s impact, while Federal Reserve expectations for lower interest rates support a new post-halving dynamic next year.
- Derivatives activity shows heavy put selling creating strong support around $85,000, while call overwrites cap upside near $95,000-$100,000, with Wintermute's Desk Strategist Jasper De Maere saying `Vol is being harvested`.
- Bitwise says the outlook could attract tens of billions of institutional capital as Bank of America now allows advisers to recommend Bitcoin ETFs from its $3.5 trillion in client assets.
- Despite cycle history pointing to a pullback next year, Grayscale Research projects fresh records in the first half of next year, while CryptoQuant data shows long-term holders distributing at high rates and short-term holders pressured since October 30.
12 Articles
12 Articles
Bitwise Says Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle May End In 2026 Bitcoin News ETHNews
Bitwise, a major crypto asset manager, believes Bitcoin is approaching a structural shift that could bring its traditional four-year market cycle to an end. In its Crypto Outlook 2026 report, released on December 16, 2025, the firm argues that Bitcoin’s price behavior is increasingly shaped by external financial forces rather than its historical halving-driven pattern. According to the report, the market conditions that once defined Bitcoin’s bo…
Bitwise Predicts Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Break in 2026: A New Paradigm for Crypto Markets?
In a groundbreaking prediction that could reshape the future of cryptocurrency investments, leading crypto asset manager Bitwise has asserted that Bitcoin is poised to break its long-established four-year market cycle in 2026. This bold forecast, made public on December 16, 2025, challenges a fundamental tenet of Bitcoin’s historical price movements, suggesting a maturing market less reliant on its halving events and more influenced by sustained…
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