Prediction Markets Are Becoming More Professionalized, but Also Harder to Beat

Prediction markets are becoming more professionalized, but also harder to beat

The institutionalization of prediction markets threatens to erode the edge of skilled traders who earn off mispricing and market inefficiencies, experts say.

Big Players ravage prediction markets

The idea that insiders hold the whip handle in prediction markets runs counter to claims made by promoters, who include Donald Trump and Donald Trump Jr.

Prediction markets getting more professionalized and harder to beat

WASHINGTON, D.C. – A Polymarket media exhibit at their pop-up experience launch shows data relating to potential political candidates popularity on March 20, 2026 in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Alex Kent/The Washington Post via Getty Images) The Washington Post | The Washington Post | Getty Images Prediction-market platforms’ courtship of Wall Street stands to bring