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Australia's central bank chief warns inflation risks materialising

Markets expect a 25-basis-point hike as Bullock warns imported energy costs and AI-driven demand are keeping inflation pressures elevated.

  • On Friday, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock warned that upside inflation risks—the Middle East conflict, higher oil prices, an AI investment boom, and extreme weather—are materializing ahead of the board's September meeting.
  • The prolonged Middle East conflict continues to inflate energy prices while the AI boom drives labor demand and tech costs, complicating the bank's path to return inflation to its 2–3 percent target.
  • Following Bullock's testimony, bond futures priced in an 82 per cent chance of a 0.25 percentage point rate hike this month, with the RBA currently holding the cash rate at 4.35 per cent.
  • Economists at UBS now project the cash rate will peak at 4.85 per cent, as markets sharply repriced the likelihood of an interest rate hike at the board's September 28–29 meeting.
  • A hike would push the cash rate to a 15-year high of 4.6 per cent, with the RBA board meeting next week one day before the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases August inflation data.
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Australian Financial Review broke the news in Sydney, Australia on Wednesday, September 16, 2026.
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