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Australian central bank holds rates but keeps hike on table

Inflation came in below forecasts, but the central bank said it may still raise rates if upside risks return.

  • On August 11, the RBA board unanimously voted to keep the official cash rate at 4.35%, with Governor Michele Bullock warning that further hikes remain "quite possible" if inflation persists above target.
  • Tightening financial conditions from three rate increases earlier this year prompted the RBA to pause, as Bullock said the board will "wait and see what the data tells us" before deciding on further action.
  • Household spending rose 0.8% in June, exceeding market expectations of 0.2%, according to Josh Gilbert, lead analyst for APAC at eToro, suggesting economic resilience under current rates.
  • Investors pushed the ASX up 0.3% following the announcement, though Bullock cautioned that borrowers should not assume rate cuts, stating "higher rates aren't off the table just yet."
  • The Reserve Bank expects inflation to reach its 2-3 per cent target range by the end of 2027, while market pricing indicates traders expect rates to remain at 4.35 per cent through December 2028.
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Sydney Morning Herald broke the news in North Sydney, Australia on Monday, August 10, 2026.
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