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Aussie Shares Drop Ahead of Interest Rates Decision
Markets priced in an 88% chance of another RBA hike after inflation hit 4.3%, adding pressure on borrowers and retailers.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets today, Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with financial markets pricing an 88 per cent probability of a fifth interest rate hike this year, lifting the cash rate to 4.85 per cent.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, September headline inflation jumped to 4.3 per cent, driven by a 9.4 per cent monthly surge in automotive fuel prices and a 5.2 per cent annual increase in housing costs.
With another hike expected to add $456 monthly to repayments for a $600,000 mortgage, household budgets face significant strain amid political debates over the government's fiscal role in the cost-of-living crisis.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers defends fiscal settings as playing "a helpful role," yet Opposition Leader Angus Taylor contends a government "spending addiction" is fueling price pressures, forcing the central bank's aggressive tightening.
Economists warn the Reserve Bank's strategy to curb inflation risks pushing the economy into a recession, as officials signal rates may remain elevated well into 2027 to ensure price growth returns to the 2–3 per cent target.