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July PCE: Core Inflation Rose to 2.9%, Highest Since February

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation rose to 2.9% in July, the highest since February, maintaining pressure above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, influencing rate cut expectations.

  • On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 2.6% year-over-year in July, remaining stable.
  • The Federal Reserve monitors the PCE because it is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, with core PCE rising to 2.9% in July, keeping inflation above the Fed's 2% target.
  • Household accounts reveal personal consumption expenditures rose $108.9 billion, personal income increased $112.3 billion, while Americans' savings declined to $985.6 billion with a 4.4% saving rate in July.
  • In trading after the release, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.15% to 98.05, 10‑year Treasury yield increased 3 basis points to 4.23%, and S&P 500 futures moved modestly lower Friday morning.
  • Markets now expect a 25 bps September cut, but policymakers caution that it is unclear how many rate cuts may occur this year while Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals rising downside labor market risks.
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FXStreet broke the news in on Friday, August 29, 2025.
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