US EditionDeutsche Bank survey pushes recession probability toward 50%
- A Deutsche Bank survey conducted between March 17-20, 2025, indicated a near 50-50 chance of a U.S. recession, raising concerns about the country's economic direction Part: 1, Part: 17.
- These concerns arose amidst ongoing tariff threats and despite low unemployment and a growing economy, with increasing anxiety among consumers and business leaders about a potential slowdown Part: 1, Part: 17.
- The survey of 400 respondents revealed an average view of a 43% probability of a downturn in growth over the next 12 months, while bond expert Jeffrey Gundlach estimated the chances of a recession at 50%-60% Part: 1, Part: 3, Part: 7, Part: 17.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged these worries but maintained that the economy remains "strong overall" and has made "significant progress toward our goals over the past two years", even as Fed officials lowered their GDP estimate to a 1.7% annualized gain and raised the core inflation outlook to 2.8%, above the 2% target Part: 2, Part: 7, Part: 10, Part: 18.
- Economists like Clement Bohr suggest that the U.S. Might be at risk for stagflation—where growth slows and inflation remains sticky—attributing it to President Trump's tariffs, while UCLA Anderson issued its first-ever "recession watch" call; however, Powell expressed doubt that a repeat of the stagflation experienced in the 1980s is likely Part: 2, Part: 4, Part: 5, Part: 6, Part: 8, Part: 11, Part: 19, Part: 20.
20 Articles
20 Articles
US Recession Risk Pegged At 30-35% By PIMCO, But Stagflation Not A Major Concern, Says Chief - Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ), SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA:SPY)
Amid the ongoing tariff battle and the Federal Reserve’s projections of higher inflation and lower growth, PIMCO has predicted a 30-35% chance of a recession, without the possibility of stagflation in the U.S. economy in 2025. What Happened: Economist Tiffany Wilding, managing director at PIMCO, told Yahoo Finance that despite the uncertainties, the U.S. economy continues to be resilient and the private sector balance sheets continue to remain “…
Bond King Jeffrey Gundlach And Deutsche Bank: The Probability Of Recession Is Approaching 50%
Years of an economic slowdown are mounting as leading financial experts, including DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, warn of heightened recession risks. The so-called Bond King believes the probability of a U.S. recession has climbed to 50 percent to 60 percent, a sentiment echoed by a recent Deutsche Bank survey, which puts the likelihood at 43% over the next 12 months. Gundlach, whose firm manages approximately $95 billion, expressed co…
Recession Risk Hits 50/50 Odds, Deutsche Bank Survey Reveals
The U.S. economy stands at a critical inflection point. According to a recent Deutsche Bank survey, there’s a 43% probability of a recession within the next 12 months—an estimate that effectively signals a coin-flip scenario for economic contraction. While headline indicators such as low unemployment and modest growth remain encouraging, underlying sentiment across both consumers and businesses suggests growing anxiety about the nation’s financi…
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