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Are we entering 2026 in an AI bubble?

This year, Range Advisory, LLC adapted Ray Dalio's six-part Bubble Indicator and identified private markets as most vulnerable to AI-related bubble dynamics due to valuation opacity and slower price discovery.
Range says AI remains in an investment upcycle, with capex, model deployment and enterprise adoption advancing, which may produce delayed returns if investment outpaces monetization.
Leverage trends in public equities indicate rising use of leverage, but Range says mixed bubble indicators do not necessarily signal collapse for public AI leaders.
Such private-market hiccups could spill into public markets, driving volatility, but Range says an AI bubble-pop is unlikely to derail U.S. market performance this year.
Range adapted Ray Dalio's Bubble Indicator and the analysis was produced by Range and reviewed and distributed by Stacker; it contains forward-looking statements warning recipients about risks and uncertainties.

Insights by Ground AI