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Al-Shabaab Threat: Calm in Mogadishu Hides Divisions and an Erratic U.S. Approach
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Al-Shabaab has not carried out a major attack in Mogadishu since December 2025. The Somali government presents it as the beginning of the end of the insurgency; the most prudent intelligence analysts, like Tricia Bacon in an analysis for Lawfare, interpret it as a tactical discipline that conceals the same political fractures of two decades ago. I have closely followed the evolution of Al Qaeda affiliated groups. In the fifth element, back in 20…
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