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UK Inflation Set to Jump to 3.3% as Iran War Hits Petrol, Airfares, and Rent

Economists expect fuel costs and airfares to lift services inflation to 4.4%, complicating the Bank of England's rate path.

  • The Office for National Statistics will reveal on Wednesday that Consumer Prices Index inflation climbed to 3.3% in March, up from 3% in February, driven by surging fuel costs.
  • Conflict between US-Israeli and Iranian forces since late February has surged fuel prices, with RAC data from April 16 showing petrol at 158.1p per litre, 25p higher than when the war began.
  • Goldman Sachs analyst James Moberly expects energy price hikes to add 0.4 percentage points to inflation, while Barclays chief UK economist Jack Meaning cited a "greater than previously expected" rise in airfares due to Easter travel.
  • Describing the fuel situation as a "crisis", Oxfordshire County Council leader Councillor Liz Leffman announced a £5.12m support scheme last week for residents struggling with rising costs.
  • The International Monetary Fund suggested spiking energy prices could push UK inflation toward 4%, while the Bank of England and economists expect price increases to accelerate in the coming months as conflict impacts persist.
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Warning to UK drivers as inflation set to rise after fuel prices surge

UK drivers have been warned that inflation is set to rise after the surge in fuel prices in recent weeks.

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+4 Reposted by 4 other sources
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UK inflation set to rise after Middle East conflict pushed up fuel prices

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to have risen to 3.3% in March, according to a consensus of experts.

·London, United Kingdom
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City AM broke the news in London, United Kingdom on Monday, April 20, 2026.
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