After warmest October on record, 2026 is likely to exceed 1.5 C above pre-industrial level, says EU climate service
Copernicus said 2026 has a 20% chance of tying or beating 2024 as the warmest year on record.
- On Friday, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service reported October 2026 was the warmest October globally, with average surface air temperature 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels.
- "An exceptionally strong El Niño is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities," said Samantha Burgess of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, with 2026 on track to exceed 1.5°C.
- Copernicus clarified that while 2026 will likely exceed 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement target concerns long-term averages; a single year above the threshold does not constitute a formal treaty breach.
- Avoiding dangerous tipping points requires steep emissions cuts of 69% by 2040, according to the UN Environment Programme, which expects warming to overshoot the 1.5°C goal.
- Johan Rockström of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research warned humanity is on "a path to an unmanageable future," urging rapid CO2 removal to mitigate severe climate impacts.
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October 2026 became the warmest in the history of observations on a global scale, the European Earth remote sensing and mapping service Copernicus reported
October 2026 became the warmest in the history of observations on a global scale, the European Earth remote sensing and mapping service Copernicus reported. According to her estimates, the average global temperature in October exceeded...
Shortly before the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, there are sobering figures: According to EU service Copernicus, the 1.5-degree target is most likely exceeded in 2026. October was also the warmest since the beginning of the records.
After a record month of October, the year 2026 will "most likely" be the second warmest ever recorded in the world, while an exceptionally powerful El Niño weather phenomenon accentuates global warming, said the Copernicus Observatory on Friday.
October is warmest on record globally, reaching average surface air temperature of 15.35C, according to Copernicus data
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