Prediction Markets Keep Betting The Strait of Hormuz Will Reopen But What If This Is the New Normal?
Traders now see only a 44% chance that traffic will normalize by Dec. 1 after recent strikes and vessel attacks rattled the passage.
5 Articles
5 Articles
Prediction Markets Keep Betting The Strait of Hormuz Will Reopen But What If This Is the New Normal?
Prediction markets have repeatedly pushed back expectations for normal Strait of Hormuz traffic, raising questions over whether traders are underestimating a permanent shift in Gulf shipping.
Predictive markets are rapidly adjusting their expectations of the Hormuz Strait. Following the deterioration of the ceasefire with Iran and new attacks linked to the crisis, Kalshi operators no longer believe that maritime traffic will return to normal levels in 2026. *** Kalshi assigns only 44% probability that traffic in Hormuz will return to normal before December 1. The earliest date when traders see a probability of more than 50% is Januar…
Strait of Hormuz traffic won’t return to normal until 2027 after latest setback, Kalshi traders predict
Vessels off the coast of the Khor Fakkan Container Terminal, the only natural deep-sea port in the region and one of the major container ports in Sharjah Emirate, along the Gulf of Oman on June 28, 2026. - | Afp | Getty ImagesPresident Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is "over" after the U.S.…
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