US EditionRobust method predicts beginning of new climate in Arctic based on warming, wetting and sea ice loss
- Researchers at the University of Groningen, together with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute , have created a technique to forecast when Arctic areas will shift into new climate conditions characterized by increased temperatures, higher precipitation, and diminishing sea ice, with their findings published on April 12 in Scientific Reports.
- The method was developed with the Arctic's significant natural fluctuations in mind, defining the Time of Emergence as the point when a climate variable remains above nearly all historical observations for a continuous period of ten years. Despite rapid warming trends, the ToE for both temperature and sea ice extent has typically not yet been observed.
- The approach uses projections from 14 global climate models fed with greenhouse gas and aerosol data to forecast ToE for temperature, precipitation, and sea ice across different Arctic areas occurring mostly before 2050 for temperature and sea ice, and later for rainfall.
- Professor Richard Bintanja expressed enthusiasm about the team’s ability to reliably estimate the Time of Emergence and emphasized that sea ice thickness in the central Arctic now reflects a distinct climate condition due to its relatively stable year-to-year variation.
- These predictions will assist Arctic communities and policymakers in planning for upcoming climate shifts and support efforts to integrate climate insights into societal and ecological responses.
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Robust method predicts beginning of new climate in Arctic based on warming, wetting and sea ice loss
When does "anomalous weather" become "a new climate"? The moment that variations in a specific climate variable turn into the new normal is termed Time of Emergence (ToE). Scientists from the University of Groningen and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) have developed a method to predict the time of emergence in various Arctic regions, based on warming, wetting, and sea ice melting.
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