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96 percent chance Democrats take House, 78 percent for Senate: Harvard model

Markets and models projected a Democratic House majority and strong Senate gains as the party won key races nationwide.

  • On Tuesday, Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros won Colorado's 1st Congressional District, defeating Republican Christy Peterson with 78.3% of the vote. This victory makes her the first Gen Z woman elected to Congress.
  • Her primary victory over 15-term Representative Diana DeGette reflected voter frustration with Washington leadership and corruption. Kiros is one of several candidates backed by the Democratic Socialists of America now heading to Congress.
  • Throughout her campaign, Kiros faced scrutiny for opposing Israel's military campaign in Gaza. Independent candidate Shimon Blau accused her of espousing 'antisemitic rhetoric,' a charge Kiros rejected, stating her criticism targets the state of Israel, not Jewish people.
  • Scheduled to be sworn in January 3, 2027, Kiros prioritizes systemic change. "We have a responsibility not just to make a bunch of noise," Kiros said, focusing on Medicare for All and anti-corruption measures.
  • Kiros arrives on Capitol Hill as part of a historic shift toward younger, diverse leadership. While the DSA's congressional presence has tripled, Democratic leaders remain cautious, setting up potential clashes over national strategy.
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Lean Left

The US midterm elections have turned prediction market platforms into a kind of political casino, where participants bet real money on the victory of individual candidates and parties. Despite the growing popularity of this type of trading, leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket did not predict the scale of the Democratic Party’s victory. This was reported by The Wall Street Journal in a material by journalists Kevin Duggan and Catherine Long, …

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  • 39% of the sources are Center
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TokenPost broke the news on Sunday, November 1, 2026.
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