Middle East oil exports top pre-war levels in September, but tanker attacks increase
Kpler said 40% of regional crude now bypasses Hormuz as Saudi and UAE pipeline routes offset repeated tanker strikes.
- Middle East crude exports exceeded pre-war levels in four of the seven days of late September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day despite attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Before the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28, exports averaged 18 million barrels per day between March 2025 and February, establishing the baseline for measuring current performance.
- Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven incidents on Saturday, including an October 1 strike on the Kuwaiti Very Large Crude Carrier Kazimah III that caused a fire; all crew members were evacuated safely.
- Current intelligence suggests vessels face a "heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat" as Iranian forces possibly launch missiles into a predetermined engagement area, or "kill box," rather than targeting individual ships.
- Beyond crude, the overall tally for oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million barrels per day through September 30, while liquefied natural gas cargoes reached their highest monthly level since February.
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Middle East Oil Exports Recover as Tanker Attacks Keep Global Supply Risks High
Middle Eastern crude exports moved above pre-war levels on several days in late September, but continued tanker attacks are keeping pressure on the global oil supply chain. The recovery in physical exports has not eliminated concerns over transportation and security around the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil exports from the Middle East, excluding Iran, have exceeded levels seen before the US-Israeli attack on Iran in the past week, despite the difficulties in navigating through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the latest data from Kpler, a company that tracks global commodity flows and shipping.
EADaily, 5 October 2026. Oil supplies from the Middle East exceeded exports last week prior to the Iranian war. However, commodity prices are not declining. Conflicts have led to a surge in the freight cost of tankers and insurance.
Despite the explosive situation in the Straits of Ormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, the flow of crude oil from the Middle East exceeded its pre-war average in some days of the last week of September, according to Kpler. But between attacks on ships, supply tensions and high pump prices, the recovery remains fragile.
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