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4,000 restaurants in Canada predicted to go out of business in 2026: forecast
Higher costs and reduced consumer spending are driving the forecasted net loss of 4,000 Canadian restaurants in 2026, following 7,000 closures in 2025, Dalhousie University says.
- This year, Dalhousie University researchers project a net loss of 4,000 restaurants in Canada, based on a new report modeling closures versus openings in 2026.
- Industry groups point to rising food, rent, insurance and wage costs, tighter consumer spending, and policy pressures like changes to the temporary workers program and cuts to temporary resident admissions.
- Last year, Canada recorded a net loss of 7,000 restaurants, and the industry has struggled since 2019 when about 98,000 restaurants operated, with 41 per cent operating at a loss or barely breaking even.
- Industry groups are calling on provincial and federal governments for targeted tax relief and GST/HST breaks, warning Ontario and Toronto could face disproportionate restaurant losses in the coming year.
- Takeout and delivery trends show catering services expanding as independent restaurant owners adapt, but Dalhousie projects locally owned restaurants face closures that could reduce food innovation.
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Canada Could See 4,000 Restaurants Close in 2026: Report
Canada is poised to lose an estimated 4,000 restaurants across the country this year, according to the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University. Director of the lab Sylvain Charlebois said in a report that the numbers were based on current cost trajectories, balance sheet conditions, and consumer behaviour. “We expect Canada to lose roughly 4,000 restaurants on a net basis in 2026,” he wrote, adding the process was “already underway.” “Th…
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Coverage Details
Total News Sources10
Leaning Left2Leaning Right3Center3Last UpdatedBias Distribution38% Center, 37% Right
Bias Distribution
- 38% of the sources are Center, 37% of the sources lean Right
38% Center
L 25%
C 38%
R 37%
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