38 Million Full-Time Jobs May Fall if War in West Asia Continues, Warns ILO
The ILO said higher energy costs and transport disruptions could cut 14 million full-time jobs in 2026 if oil prices rise 50%.
- On Monday, May 18, 2026, the International Labour Organization released its 'Employment and Social Trends: May 2026 Update,' warning that the Middle East conflict is undermining wages and working conditions far beyond the region.
- Higher energy costs, transport disruptions, and supply chain pressures are weighing on global economies, creating what ILO chief economist Sangheon Lee described as a 'slow-moving and potentially long-lasting shock' that will reshape labor markets.
- If oil prices climb about 50 per cent above pre-conflict averages, global hours worked could fall, resulting in the equivalent of 14 million full-time job losses in 2026 and 43 million in 2027.
- The Asia-Pacific region and Gulf states face the worst fallout, with reliance on imported energy and migrant labor migration creating visible spillover effects that hit crucial remittances for workers in The Arab States.
- A stronger focus on business resilience is necessary to prevent these temporary energy shocks from becoming long-lasting setbacks, as real labor income could decline by 3 per cent by 2027, the ILO warned.
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38 million full-time jobs may fall if war in West Asia continues, warns ILO
The report warned that if fuel or fertilizer prices rise, or shortages persist, the effects could extend beyond farm incomes to food prices, rural livelihoods and food security, in countries that depend on imported fertilizers, including India
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The prolongation or escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could have more serious consequences on employment than those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the International Labour Organization (ILO) warned in a report.
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