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Global bond selloff pushes 10-year US yield toward 5% on oil, rate-hike fears

Traders raised the odds of a near-term Federal Reserve hike to about 70% as oil topped $100 and 10-year Treasury yields neared 5%.

  • On Friday, U.S. 10-year Treasury notes approached the closely watched 5% level, hitting their highest point since late 2023 amid a global bond selloff driven by persistent inflation fears.
  • Brent crude futures surged beyond $100 per barrel as intensifying Middle East conflict fueled concerns over prolonged supply disruptions, exacerbating global inflationary pressures on energy costs.
  • The 30-year bond yield climbed to 5.3587% while the 2-year note yield reached 4.596%, as traders priced in a 72% chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week.
  • Rising sovereign yields serve as a reference point for asset prices across markets, pushing steeper mortgage rates for consumers and forcing governments to manage climbing debt servicing costs.
  • Investors await tomorrow's consumer price index report, which analysts describe as the most important inflation print for the Fed and markets this year, to clarify whether rate hikes will follow.
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Lean Left

The jump in oil and inflation concerns drives global bond returns to high levels, as US Treasury returns for 10 years are approaching 5% and interest-raising bets are rising.

Lean Right

The sharp rise in government bond yields is causing new turmoil in international markets, with the 10-year US now just a breath away from the critical 5% threshold. With US debt exceeding $40 trillion, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached 4.97% on Friday, having increased by 19 basis points during the week. This is the highest level since 2023 and one of the highest in almost two decades. The development has raised alarms in the market…

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CNBC broke the news in Englewood Cliffs, United States on Thursday, September 10, 2026.
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