Nexus Poll: Flavio Bolsonaro, Lula Tied at 46%-45% in Brazil Runoff
Brazil
Adriano Machado/Reuters
Source Analysis
What Happened
What Happened
Where Sources Agree
- arrows_inputStatistical Polling Margin: Most sources document that the poll results reflect a statistical tie, as the 2-percentage-point margin of error exceeds the gap between the candidates, according to poll documentation.
- arrows_inputScheduled Election Timeline: Various sources indicate first-round voting is scheduled for October 4; a second-round runoff is set for October 25, according to election schedules.
Where Sources Disagree
- arrows_outputConflicting Polling Results: The Nexus poll shows Bolsonaro leading Lula 46% to 45% in a simulated runoff, whereas the Quaest survey reports a dead heat with both candidates tied at 41% support.
- arrows_outputSurvey Sample Sizes: Reports note minor differences in the sample sizes of recent election polls, with the Nexus survey reaching 2,002 respondents and the Quaest poll surveying 2,004 individuals.
Timeline
September 8, 2026
Nexus Poll: Bolsonaro Slightly Ahead: A Nexus poll published Sept. 8 (fielded Sept. 4–7) showed Flavio Bolsonaro edging Lula 46% to 45% in a simulated second-round runoff — the first time the senator led in Nexus tracking — a result characterised as a statistical tie given a 2-point margin of error and described as Bolsonaro's strongest showing since late March. The same poll also provided a first-round scenario breakdown (Lula 39%, Bolsonaro 35%, others smaller).
September 7, 2026
Quaest Poll Shows 41-41 Tie: A Quaest simulated runoff published around Sept. 7 found Lula and Bolsonaro each receiving 41% of the vote, indicating a dead heat in another poll ahead of October's potential runoff. The Quaest result was reported by Globo and Reuters.
September 4, 2026
Nexus Fieldwork Conducted: Nexus conducted its survey of 2,002 people between September 4 and September 7, 2026, and noted that if no candidate wins over 50% in the first round the top two would advance to a runoff scheduled for October 25 (first round Oct. 4). The poll's margin of error was reported as 2 percentage points.
Summaries by Ground AI
Sources
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Source Analysis
Timeline
September 8, 2026
Nexus Poll: Bolsonaro Slightly Ahead: A Nexus poll published Sept. 8 (fielded Sept. 4–7) showed Flavio Bolsonaro edging Lula 46% to 45% in a simulated second-round runoff — the first time the senator led in Nexus tracking — a result characterised as a statistical tie given a 2-point margin of error and described as Bolsonaro's strongest showing since late March. The same poll also provided a first-round scenario breakdown (Lula 39%, Bolsonaro 35%, others smaller).
September 7, 2026
Quaest Poll Shows 41-41 Tie: A Quaest simulated runoff published around Sept. 7 found Lula and Bolsonaro each receiving 41% of the vote, indicating a dead heat in another poll ahead of October's potential runoff. The Quaest result was reported by Globo and Reuters.
September 4, 2026
Nexus Fieldwork Conducted: Nexus conducted its survey of 2,002 people between September 4 and September 7, 2026, and noted that if no candidate wins over 50% in the first round the top two would advance to a runoff scheduled for October 25 (first round Oct. 4). The poll's margin of error was reported as 2 percentage points.
