World Bank Sees Commodity Prices up 23% in 2026 Due to Middle East War, Other Shocks
The bank said energy prices and shipping disruptions are driving the jump, while food prices could rise 10% next year.
- Global commodity prices are set to surge 23% in 2026, the World Bank reported Wednesday, citing rising energy costs, Middle East conflict, and grain shipment disruptions in the Black Sea.
- Energy prices surged 32% this year, reversing three years of declines, while oil supply is expected to drop 5.2%—the biggest decline in four decades outside the 2020 global recession.
- Food commodity prices face a cumulative increase of nearly 18% through 2027, while metals are projected to rise 25% and fertilizer costs climb 14% amid persistent supply disruptions.
- The World Bank has provided $8.7 billion in emergency aid to 25 countries, warning that commodity shocks could push more than 40 million additional people into extreme poverty.
- Adverse scenarios involving El Nino and escalating Middle East conflict could drive food prices 12% higher than expected, as foreign ministers gather in Atlanta to address global crises.
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Global Commodity Prices to Rise 23% in 2026 Amid Middle East Conflict: World Bank
Get latest articles and stories on Business at LatestLY. Global commodity prices are projected to rise 23 per cent in 2026, with energy prices expected to surge 32 per cent, as the conflict in the Middle East disrupts oil supplies and grain shipments, while weather risks threaten agricultural production, the World Bank Group said on Wednesday. Business News | Global Commodity Prices to Rise 23% in 2026 Amid Middle East Conflict: World Bank.
Commodity prices will increase by an average of 23 percent globally this year, but could fall by 7 percent next year, according to the World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook 2026, a commodity market publication published on Wednesday. According to the organization's forecast, energy will still become more expensive this year, but may become cheaper next year, and food prices may continue to rise.
Observador
Correio da ManhãIncrease is driven, above all, by the conflict in the Middle East, which triggered Brent's price from about $69 per barrel in 2025 to an average of $91 this year.
Energy prices set to jump 32% this year with Brent crude averaging $91 per barrel, before easing to $79 in 2027
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