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Weather IQ: Can the weather impact voter turnout on Election Day?

Forecasts call for 1 to 2 inches of rain locally across Mid-MO on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, 2026, potentially marking the wettest November election in the region over the last decade.
A famous 2007 research paper titled "The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections" found every inch of rainfall decreases turnout by slightly less than 1%, though research indicates weather's overall impact remains minimal.
Boone County Clerk Brianna Lennon reported an uptick in early voting ahead of the rainy forecast, saying, "We started seeing an uptick on Friday. But over the weekend, we definitely had people specifically mentioning that the forecast was the reason they were voting in advance."
Florida State University professor Dr. Brad Gomez said that in simulations of close elections, weather could have been determinative: "We found that in numerous close elections, weather could have been determinative of the outcome."
Midterm data illustrates that weather is not the sole factor driving turnout; 2018 participation reached 75,699 ballots despite trace amounts of rainfall, while early voting options help mitigate weather-related participation drops.

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Could heavy rain impact voter turnout in Mid-MO for the midterms?

Rain is expected in Mid-Missouri on Election Day, but will it affect voter participation in the midterms? National research indicates that while weather can influence turnout, the overall effect is projected to be minimal. A famous 2007 research paper titled “The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections” examined

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