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Weather IQ: Can the Weather Impact Voter Turnout on Election Day?
Researchers found that each additional inch of rain can cut turnout by 1 to 2 percentage points, with marginal voters most affected.
- With Election Day arriving tomorrow, rain and storms threaten the Upper Midwest and Southeast, potentially affecting voter turnout across multiple regions.
- Dating back to America's first elections in the 1700s, weather has played a role in voter participation. A 2023 study by authors Damsbo-Svendsen and Hansen found that local precipitation lowers voting probability.
- Research indicates each additional inch of rain cuts turnout by about 1 to 2 percentage points. For every 10-degree temperature rise, voting probability drops by 0.6 percentage points.
- While the Upper Midwest and Southeast face storm risks, Northern California also expects showers, expanding the geographic scope of potential weather-related turnout effects.
- Although modern voting trips are shorter than historically, studies suggest inclement weather still impacts turnout. Correlation does not necessarily equal causation, yet precipitation remains a measurable factor.
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11 Articles
11 Articles
Spectrum Local NewsReposted by 
Spectrum News
Spectrum NewsCould weather have an impact on the 2026 elections?
Rain can be a factor in who turns out to vote.
·United States
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Total News Sources11
Leaning Left0Leaning Right0Center11Last UpdatedBias Distribution100% Center
Bias Distribution
- 100% of the sources are Center
100% Center
C 100%
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