War in Iran led global emissions to fall this year, research finds
Researchers said the decline was driven mainly by an oil shock from the Iran war, while land-use emissions pushed total CO2 higher.
- Global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions decreased 0.4% this year, according to scientists from the Global Carbon Project, a slight decline primarily driven by oil supply shocks stemming from the war in Iran.
- The war in Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping artery for petroleum, causing oil emissions to drop nearly 2% while natural gas fell 0.3% and coal rose 0.6%.
- Despite the fossil-fuel drop, overall carbon emissions rose 1% due to deforestation and human-caused peat fires increasing faster than fossil fuel burning decreased, with total emissions reaching 42.2 billion tons.
- India saw fossil-fuel pollution surge 4.4% this year, while major polluters including China, the United States, Europe, and Japan showed about a 1% drop in emissions, according to the study.
- Experts debate whether this decline represents a permanent shift or a temporary response to oil shocks, particularly as global emissions continue at a rate of about 1,335 tons per second.
236 Articles
236 Articles
Iran war, Hormuz disruptions drive first drop in global fossil fuel emissions since 2020
Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026, the first drop since 2020, partly as the Iran war cut oil and gas use. Researchers warn the decline is unlikely to last.
COP31: Global CO2 from fossil fuels to decrease - but it's largely due to wars
In a positive outlook from the 2026 Global carbon Budget, global emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026 – yet they warn it is not fast enough for a durable decline. Total CO2 emissions are projected to be 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026 – up from 42.8 billion tonnes last year – due to land-use changes, such as deforestation, peat fires and agriculture. The remaining amount of carbon that can be emitted before warming r…
Global carbon pollution dips slightly as Iran war oil shock jolts emissions, scientists say
Global carbon pollution dropped this year ever so slightly, but it's more because of oil shocks reverberating from the Iran war than anything the world has done to fight climate change, scientists said in a new study.
fastcompany.com
As the war in Iran raised global oil prices, oil emissions dropped and solar and wind power expanded. That led to a slight decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026. But it’s not a sign that we’ve turned the tide on fossil fuel use, experts warn. Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026, according to research presented at the United Nations’ 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) climate talk…
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