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Tesla Quarterly Deliveries Seen Falling as Lack of Tax Credits, ...
Wall Street analysts foresee Tesla's 2025 deliveries dropping 15% to 422,850 vehicles with recovery expected in 2026 as new Standard models support growth, according to consensus data.
- As 2025 draws to a close, Tesla posted Wall Street delivery estimates on its investor site, showing Q4 2025 shipments falling about 15% to 422,850 and full-year deliveries declining to about 1.64 million.
- Because Washington cut the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, demand softened going into Q4 as buyers who claimed credits in Q3 pulled sales forward and October launches of Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard did not meaningfully lift demand.
- Despite 2025 weakness, Wall Street models predict deliveries climbing again by 2026–2029, with analyst projections showing 1.75 million deliveries in 2026, 2.35 million in 2028 and more than 3.0 million in 2029.
- Investors remain divided: shares climbed over 14% this year even as traders price in weaker deliveries, with fewer than a quarter betting Tesla surpasses 430,000 in Q4.
- Tesla's multi‑year recovery depends on the Cybercab and its broader robotaxi strategy, but deployments remain tiny with 35 in Austin and about 129 in the Bay Area, and regulatory changes are needed to deploy more than 2,500 annually.
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13 Articles
13 Articles
Tesla shares weak average sales estimates as it appears on track for second annual decline in a row
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Total News Sources13
Leaning Left3Leaning Right2Center4Last UpdatedBias Distribution45% Center
Bias Distribution
- 45% of the sources are Center
45% Center
L 33%
C 45%
R 22%
Factuality
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