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US Murder Rate Plunges 20% in 2025

U.S. murder rate fell 19.8% through October 2025, driven by historic drops in major cities and following two years of record declines, according to crime analyst Jeff Asher.

  • This year Jeff Asher's Real-Time Crime Index shows murders fell about 19.8 through October, with 5,912 cases recorded versus 7,369 in 2024.
  • Across a sample of jurisdictions, RTCI's data from 570 law‑enforcement agencies covering about 115 million people shows a 19.8% decline in murders through October, on pace for a record drop.
  • Among the largest 30 cities, Birmingham, Alabama, recorded a 49 percent drop in murders, while New Orleans, San Francisco, Detroit, Baltimore, Oakland, and Philadelphia hit multi‑decade lows, with San Francisco likely the lowest since 1942.
  • Federal officials say the White House credits enforcement measures and National Guard deployments, while FBI Director Kash Patel wrote `U.S. murders on pace for largest one-year drop on record- not an accident.` Analysts estimate about 12,000 fewer murders across 2024 and 2025 compared to 2020–2021.
  • The FBI says it will release official totals sometime next year, and Gun Violence Archive reports 14,302 gun-related deaths as of Wednesday, with RTCI estimates tracking closely.
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  • 69% of the sources lean Right
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foxwilmington.com broke the news in on Tuesday, December 23, 2025.
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