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US jobless claims tick up to 200,000 but remain low by historic standards
Claims rose above economists’ forecasts, but the four-week average stayed unchanged and continuing claims fell, reinforcing signs of a resilient labor market.
On Thursday, the US Department of Labor reported initial jobless claims increased by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 200,000 for the week ending November 7, exceeding the 195,000 economists had forecast.
Despite the recent uptick, jobless claims remained at levels consistent with a resilient labor market, with applications holding at or below 200,000 for nine straight weeks across the United States.
Continuing claims, a proxy for hiring, fell by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.697 million for the week ended October 31, tracking individuals remaining on benefits beyond their initial week.
Citigroup economist Veronica Clark suggested a smaller workforce could reduce unemployment filings, while benefit exhaustion limited to a "maximum of 26 weeks" in most states may also restrain continuing claims.
Projections indicate the unemployment rate could move closer to 4.0% by early 2027, assuming continuing claims remain at levels supporting a stable labor market despite potential workforce contractions.