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Brazil Equities Soar Most Since 2020 After Bolsonaro Tops First-Round Vote
Investors bet a Bolsonaro victory would speed fiscal reforms and privatizations, sending Brazilian stocks, the real and US-listed shares sharply higher.
On Monday, October 5, 2026, the Ibovespa index closed at a record 206,911.89 points, surging 7.70% and marking its first close above 200,000 points following Sunday's presidential first-round vote.
Liberal Party candidate Flávio Bolsonaro led Sunday's first-round vote with 47% of ballots, while Workers' Party candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured nearly 53.9 million votes. A runoff is scheduled for October 25, 2026.
The Brazilian real strengthened to 4.98 reais per dollar, while the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF rose about 12% in New York. Petrobras shares gained as investors responded to the prospect of fiscal discipline.
Analysts at BTG Pactual estimate that a Flávio victory in the October 25 runoff could push B3 shares higher. Investors appear to be pricing in expectations of tighter public spending from 2027.
The presidential race remains competitive, with Flávio leading by about 2.2 million votes. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee meets November 3 and 4, nine days after the runoff.
On a day dominated by the electoral surprise of the first presidential round in Brazil, currencies and stock markets in Latin America closed with profits, while Wall Street set new peaks.
São Paulo (EFE).- The São Paulo Stock Exchange closed this Monday with a strong jump of 7.70 % and reached a historic peak, after the good result of the ultra-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the Brazilian presidential elections held on Sunday. The Ibovespa, reference index of the São Paulo corro, came to rise ... Read more