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Third-Party Carriers: The Universal General Election Probability Model 2.0
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Third-Party Carriers: The Universal General Election Probability Model 2.0
Subscribe nowShareWhen we first ran our General Election Predictive Metric, the Universal General Election Probability Model, after the California, Maryland, and Texas primaries, we forgot one important outlier for two of those states: third-party and independent candidates.Our model has been updated to reflect that. The original two-candidate version of the model converts a margin into a win probability with a logistic curve. That works fine wh…
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