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The 'Rockets and Feathers' Effect: Inflation Eases but Grocery Bills Do Not
Shoppers are buying fewer items and turning to store brands as discounters gain share and food companies resist deeper price cuts.
The Department of Agriculture reports food prices will rise 2.7% this year, frustrating Americans hit with the sharpest grocery price increase in 50 years despite inflation cooling.
Economics experts describe this pattern as 'rockets and feathers'; prices surge rapidly after disruptions but descend slowly. Climate issues in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Brazil have kept costs elevated.
To manage costs, consumers are switching to store brands, which reached record sales of $282.8 billion last year, while discounters like Walmart and Costco gain share from traditional grocers.
Walmart rolled back prices recently on select items, while Target cut prices earlier this year; 'it will force others in the market to act,' Matt Hamory, global grocery lead at AlixPartners, said.
While inflation has slowed, Hamory warns that true deflation—where prices actually drop—remains rare, meaning Americans should expect costs to stay elevated rather than reverse course.