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The 'Rockets and Feathers' Effect: Inflation Eases but Grocery Bills Do Not

Shoppers are buying fewer items and turning to store brands as discounters gain share and food companies resist deeper price cuts.

  • The Department of Agriculture reports food prices will rise 2.7% this year, frustrating Americans hit with the sharpest grocery price increase in 50 years despite inflation cooling.
  • Economics experts describe this pattern as 'rockets and feathers'; prices surge rapidly after disruptions but descend slowly. Climate issues in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Brazil have kept costs elevated.
  • To manage costs, consumers are switching to store brands, which reached record sales of $282.8 billion last year, while discounters like Walmart and Costco gain share from traditional grocers.
  • Walmart rolled back prices recently on select items, while Target cut prices earlier this year; 'it will force others in the market to act,' Matt Hamory, global grocery lead at AlixPartners, said.
  • While inflation has slowed, Hamory warns that true deflation—where prices actually drop—remains rare, meaning Americans should expect costs to stay elevated rather than reverse course.
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The economy has a term to describe what has happened to grocery prices in the United States in recent years: rockets and feathers.

·Pennsylvania, United States
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The 'rockets and feathers' effect: Inflation eases but grocery bills do not

Economics has a term for what U.S. grocery prices have done in recent years. It's the rockets and feathers effect.

·New York, United States
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WKMG broke the news in Orlando, United States on Saturday, July 25, 2026.
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