Prediction Markets Missed Brazil. U.S. Midterms Are the Big Test.
- Prediction markets favored Flávio Bolsonaro to become Brazil’s next president for three weeks, but that support collapsed Sunday night.
- The markets then turned to forecasting control of the U.S. Senate on Tuesday.
- Kalshi and Polymarket placed Democratic Senate control at 70% and 73%, respectively, on Friday morning.
- Nate Silver’s model estimated Democratic control at about 75% on October 29, while prediction markets provide contract prices rather than probabilities.
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Prediction markets missed Brazil. U.S. midterms are the big test.
(The Center Square) – Prediction markets spent three weeks heavily favoring Flávio Bolsonaro to be Brazil's next president. That collapsed Sunday night. Tuesday, the same markets take on the U.S. Senate.
Prediction markets missed Brazil. U.S. midterms are the big test. - The Daily Bo Snerdley
(The Center Square) – Prediction markets spent three weeks heavily favoring Flávio Bolsonaro to be Brazil’s next president. That collapsed Sunday night. Tuesday, the same markets take on the U.S. Senate. Kalshi and Polymarket put Democratic control of the Senate at 70% and 73% as of Friday morning. Forecaster Nate Silver’s model put it near 75% as of Oct. 29. The Cook Political Report rates seven Senate races as toss-ups but said Friday it sees …
The electoral results in Brazil and Israel have subverted not only the polls, which often have well known distortions of various kinds, but also the betting market, a sector in strong expansion also in finance that, being formed by subjects who put their money on it, is sometimes considered more credible. We will see if ... Read more
With investors moving heads behind Bolsonaro in Brazil, following the election in Israel and polls on what will happen in a week in the mid-term vote in the U.S., today’s wheel kept everyone very dizzy. Tomorrow the Fed defines if it moves its rate. Oil gave a day of tranquility. Locally, the dollar went down and the BCRA did not intervene. The bonds, very selective, showed low risk. And the worst was in the local stock market: the real economy …
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