Emissions From the Past Decade Have Made Europe's Recent Heat Waves Worse
Researchers found post-2015 emissions made Europe’s 2025 record heat wave about one-third of a degree Celsius hotter, with 99-in-100 odds.
- A study published in Geophysical Research Letters found that greenhouse gases emitted since the Paris Agreement measurably intensified recent European heat waves. Researchers determined emissions since 2015 increased the 2025 heat wave's intensity by roughly one-third of a degree Celsius.
- Using a generative AI diffusion model, researchers simulated weather data from 10 global climate models to predict how extreme heat waves in Europe could have unfolded under different global emissions levels. This methodology allowed them to isolate the impact of post-2015 emissions.
- Temperatures crested 115 degrees Fahrenheit in Spain and Portugal during the 2025 heat wave, which contributed to more than 16,000 deaths across Europe. The pattern held true for Europe's hottest week in every year since at least 2021.
- The Climate Collection argues this research provides essential data to help policymakers make informed decisions on infrastructure and climate risks. The group formed after the National Climate Assessment's collapse to fill gaps in climate science synthesis.
- Extreme heat will continue to intensify even if decarbonization goals are achieved, Stanford climate scientist Noah Suresh Diffenbaugh warned. Released emissions will impact Earth's climate regardless of future mitigation efforts, he noted.
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European heat waves have been aggravated by emissions since 2015, according to Stanford. Their analysis estimates how much heat that decade added to the 2025 episode.
Emissions from the past decade have made Europe's recent heat waves worse
Recent heat waves in Europe have been intensified by the greenhouse gases emitted since nations committed to limiting global warming under the 2015 Paris Agreement, according to a Sep. 22 study published in Geophysical Research Letters.
Scientists estimate that the heat wave of June 2025 was approximately 0.34 °C warmer than it would have been in Europe without emissions over the last 10 years.
Time Magazine
khbrknewsThe Past Decade’s Emissions Are Already Driving Worse Heat Waves in Europe
A woman shelters from the sun with a parasol on June 21, 2026 in Seville, Spain. —Marcelo del Pozo—Getty ImagesThe heat waves Europe has seen in recent years were made measurably more intense because of the greenhouse gasses emitted since the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, according to a new study published today in Geophysical Research Letters. “We found that the emissions released since the signing of this Paris Agreement in 2015 have substant…
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