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Tax refunds and AI boom have offset some US economic pain from Iran war and high gas prices, so far

U.S. economic growth held steady at 2% in Q1, as big tax refunds and surging AI investment countered a 21% jump in gasoline prices and rising inflation.

  • The Commerce Department reported Thursday that U.S. economic output grew at a 2% annual pace from January through March, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 0.7% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year.
  • Gasoline prices surged 21% in March after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks, creating the biggest oil supply disruption in history. Business investment also boomed, rising 10.4% in the first quarter.
  • Americans received substantial tax refunds from President Donald Trump's 2025 tax cuts, offsetting higher gasoline costs two to one through most of April. Prices nonetheless outpaced incomes for the second straight month in March.
  • Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, warned that "with tax refund season winding down and gas prices still climbing, the hit to consumer spending will become more evident from May." Refund support is temporary.
  • The Labor Department reported last week that unemployment benefit applications tumbled to the lowest level in more than 50 years, signaling strong job security. Economists warn of a "no-hire, no-fire" scenario locking young Job seekers out of opportunities.
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Tax refunds and AI boom have offset some US economic pain from Iran war and high gas prices, so far

Americans are paying for the war in Iran with every visit to the gas station, but some of the damage to the U.S. economy is being offset — for now anyway — by big tax refunds and an investment boom driven by artificial intelligence.

·United States
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KTHV broke the news on Thursday, April 30, 2026.
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