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John Swinney: I'll stand as the first prime minister of an independent Scotland in 2031

Swinney says independence supporters can win by persuasion and says Scotland could complete the process within 18 months after a 2028 vote.

  • First Minister John Swinney predicts an independence referendum win in 2028, vowing to run as the first leader of an independent Scotland in 2031. He insists he can "land it" by "being persuasive" to voters.
  • On Thursday, the First Minister launched his party's Holyrood manifesto, saying he was "only just getting started" to force another vote on the United Kingdom's future. He targets a majority of seats to secure that referendum.
  • Mirroring the 2014 timetable, Swinney believes Scotland could complete the independence process within 18 months. He argues voters are now "less susceptible to the arguments made by the No side" following European Union withdrawal.
  • Swinney claims independence would represent a "seismic change" with "enormous implications for the United Kingdom," citing the "diminished" credibility of Labour, the Tories, and the Liberal Democrats. This positions him against all three pro-UK parties.
  • Amid a "positive" SNP campaign, Swinney is "juggling" responsibilities to his wife Elizabeth and son Matthew while stating his reliable character will be "very much part of the judgment" voters make on May 7.
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Swinney says he will win independence vote in 2028 and run for election in 2031

The SNP leader believes Scotland could be independent by the end of 2030 – and wants to run in the 2031 elections to be the country’s leader.

·London, United Kingdom
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The Independent broke the news in London, United Kingdom on Sunday, April 19, 2026.
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