Russia's Urals Discount Widens to Deepest Since April 2023 as Gulf Crude Returns
- Discounts on Russian Urals crude widened to levels last seen in April 2023 as Persian Gulf oil supplies returned through the Strait of Hormuz, Kommersant reported Friday.
- Indian refiners pivoted to Persian Gulf crude in October as freight costs priced out Russian barrels, with imports from Russia falling 67% month-over-month, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea.
- In the week ending November 6, Urals traded $31 a barrel below Dated Brent at Baltic ports and $33 a barrel below it at Novorossiysk, widening by up to $2.95 a barrel.
- Global oil supply reached 105.4 million barrels a day in October, the International Energy Agency noted, as rebounding Gulf shipments pushed markets into surplus for the first time since the Middle East conflict began.
- Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told the Duma on October 29 that the 2027 budget assumes a Urals price of $50 a barrel, down from the previous $59 a barrel forecast.
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Russia increased oil revenues to $21.2 billion in October. More than 80 percent of revenues were provided by crude oil, which is also supplied by pipelines.
Global demand for oil is currently slow due to high prices. At the same time, supply is increasing as countries in the Gulf region export more and the US or Brazil have increased their production.
For the first time since the beginning of the Iran war, the International Energy Agency recognises a stabilisation of the world's oil market. However, it is too early to breathe up.
The oil markets have been in a state of emergency since the outbreak of the Iran War. Now, according to the IEA, global supply is again exceeding demand for the first time.
Global oil supply will exceed demand in the final quarter of this year after increased exports from Gulf states in October left the market in surplus for the first time since the Iran war, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. "The oil market is showing early signs of rebalancing," the agency said.
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